The issue of potentially transporting gas from Turkmenistan through Azerbaijan and Türkiye is not a new one; it has been in discussions since the Nabucco project over 20 years ago and pops up on the agenda from time to time. Nowadays, Türkiye is thoroughly examining this matter with the aim of establishing itself as a gas hub for additional supply to Europe.
Certainly, the EU's got this gas demand thing going on due to the Russia-Ukraine war, and they need to fill that gap. But, you know, considering the current situation and what is coming up soon, pulling off a mega gas pipeline from Turkmenistan through the Caspian, Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and then cruising into Europe, is not really feasible. Why not, you ask? Well, for starters, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) is maxed out with Azerbaijani gas. Plus, Azerbaijan has some fresh gas tucked away, ready to beef up the SGC. So, do we really need Turkmenistan's gas crowding our SGC party, you know?
Secondly, it is not really clear who would be up for investing in a pipeline across the Caspian. The EU is not exactly enthusiastic about pouring money into expanding the SGC right now.
Plus, the whole gas transit through the Caspian has, and still does, run into geopolitical hurdles, like Russia and Iran potentially throwing a wrench into things by raising environmental protection concerns about the Caspian. I seriously doubt Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Türkiye would be jumping at the chance to invest in a Caspian project given these issues.
The Trans-Caspian gas pipeline is sort of lingering on the negotiation table for a while now. There is no immediate plan to bring it back into play in the current and near-term perspective. Of course, the world is full of surprises, and we can not predict future geopolitical scenarios. Currently, a more practical and quicker way for Turkmenistan's gas delivery is the swap option. It has been tested through Iran and could keep rolling. Although the volumes have been on the modest side, a slight ramp-up is possible.
The swap channel looks pretty appealing, especially since Turkmen gas via Iran can reach, and has been reaching, Azerbaijan. Plus, it can make its way directly to Türkiye through Iran.
This method for delivering Turkmen gas towards Europe sounds more practical, although it might be too soon to consider significant transit volumes through it.
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